Wei An's Perspective: Why Did the Same Food Safety Scandal Affect New Taipei and Kaohsiung's Election Prospects So Differently?

Following the outbreak of the food safety scandal, a new round of local election polls has been released. Despite a political climate that is generally unfavorable to the ruling party and relatively favorable to the opposition, the Kuomintang (KMT) candidates in New Taipei and Kaohsiung have experienced markedly different electoral trajectories.

In New Taipei, according to the same polling agency, TVBS, Li Sichuan's lead increased only slightly from 6.2% before the scandal to 6.9% after—a mere 0.7% rise. In contrast, in Kaohsiung, although different polling agencies report varying figures, the trend is consistent: the gap between Ke Chih-en and Lai Jui-lung has narrowed from over ten percentage points to within single digits.

Why did the same food safety scandal benefit the KMT candidate in Kaohsiung more significantly than in New Taipei? This warrants careful analysis.

1. New Taipei: Li Sichuan’s Lead Margin Increased Only Slightly

Let’s examine four polls:

1. On July 29, TVBS released its latest New Taipei mayoral poll (conducted July 20–23), showing Li Sichuan at 43.7%, Su Chiao-hui at 36.8%, with Li leading by 6.9%.

2. On July 20, Juwen News Network commissioned Pearson Data to release a New Taipei mayoral poll (July 6–11), with Li Sichuan at 50.85%, Su Chiao-hui at 44.06%, a 6.79% lead.

3. On July 16, New Taiwan Think Tank released a New Taipei mayoral poll (July 10–13), with Su Chiao-hui at 40.2%, Li Sichuan at 40.0%, a 0.2% lead for Su.

4. On June 8, TVBS released a New Taipei mayoral poll (June 3–7), with Li Sichuan at 39.2%, Su Chiao-hui at 33.0%, a 6.2% lead.

Among these four polls, the most valuable for comparison are those from the same agency over time. TVBS’s early June poll showed Li Sichuan leading by 6.2%; by late July, his lead had increased to 6.9%. Despite the entire food safety scandal, Li Sichuan’s lead grew by only 0.7%, essentially remaining stagnant.

2. Kaohsiung: Ke Chih-en Significantly Closes Gap with Lai Jui-lung

Now consider three polls:

1. On June 12, New Taiwan Think Tank commissioned Trend Survey to release a Kaohsiung mayoral poll (June 9–10), with Lai Jui-lung at 46.2%, Ke Chih-en at 28.4%, a 17.8% lead.

2. On July 20, ETToday’s polling center released a Kaohsiung mayoral poll (July 16–18), with Lai Jui-lung at 36.2%, Ke Chih-en at 23.6%, a 12.6% lead.

3. On July 23, Zhen Media commissioned Shan Shui Polling to release a Kaohsiung mayoral poll (July 18–20), with Lai Jui-lung at 39.6%, Ke Chih-en at 31.6%, an 8% lead.

Although these three polls come from different agencies and cannot be directly compared in absolute terms, the common trend is clear: Ke Chih-en has steadily closed the gap with Lai Jui-lung. Estimating overall changes, Ke Chih-en’s support increased by approximately 3–5% during the food safety scandal period—significantly more than in New Taipei.

3. The Scandal Hurts the Ruling Party—Why Did New Taipei’s KMT Benefit Less?

The electoral battle in New Taipei had already favored Li Sichuan since April and May. The green camp focused on Li’s brother’s background and the source of home purchase funds, but these issues had no direct link to Li himself. The couple’s decades-long civil service careers made the legitimacy of their home purchase funds easily assessable by voters, limiting the attack’s impact.

Conversely, the blue camp’s attacks on Su Chiao-hui’s camp centered on her sister’s company receiving government subsidies, National Development Fund investments, and lack of transparency—all backed by specific evidence on timing, amounts, and systems, making them more identifiable. In other words, Li Sichuan already held significant advantages before the food safety scandal.

Moreover, Li Sichuan’s administrative experience, municipal image, and public favorability are political assets unmatched by his opponent. He also enjoys the strongest campaign support nationwide.

Chiang Wan-an is currently Taiwan’s most popular and talked-about political figure, having repeatedly campaigned for Li Sichuan since the election began.

Hou Yu-ih governed New Taipei for eight years, with municipal satisfaction nearing 70%—one of the highest in the country. He has consistently and publicly supported Li Sichuan, accompanying him on events and endorsing him.

Despite these advantages, before the food safety scandal, TVBS’s poll showed Li Sichuan leading Su Chiao-hui by only 6.2%.

In July, the food safety scandal erupted. On July 24, ETToday’s Poll Cloud released a survey (July 21–23) showing 59.3% of the public dissatisfied with the central government’s handling of the food safety issue, including 56.6% of centrist voters. This indicates another wave of political momentum favorable to the opposition and unfavorable to the ruling party.

Li Sichuan’s public support should, in theory, have more room for significant growth. Yet, TVBS’s late July poll showed his lead over Su Chiao-hui at only 6.9%—a mere 0.7% increase from early June’s 6.2%.

4. Why Couldn’t Li Sichuan Convert Advantages into Support?

The real issue to examine is not external support, but the combined campaign strength of Li Sichuan and his team. One observable indicator is online visibility.

As of July 31, according to Net Temperature’s statistics, Su Chiao-hui ranked 9th with 258,813 online mentions; Li Sichuan ranked 18th with 157,969 mentions—Su’s online presence was about 1.64 times that of Li’s.

This is just one of many indicators, but it reflects that despite Li Sichuan’s solid foundation and resources, he has not fully converted them into issue amplification or sustained support growth.

In contrast, in Kaohsiung, Ke Chih-en, initially at a disadvantage, has gradually developed her own characteristics over recent months. Whether through policy proposals, public events, or 35 “temple-front singing and speeches,” she has drawn closer to voters, making her personal image increasingly distinct and consolidating public support. She has steadily narrowed a double-digit deficit to a single-digit gap.

5. Is This a Strong Wind or a Typhoon?

Some argue these polls were all conducted before the July 25 Ketian protest, so a second wave of political momentum favorable to the KMT could still emerge. This possibility cannot be ruled out, but caution is warranted.

According to a report by Juwen News Network, using the internationally recognized “Jacobs Crowd Estimation Formula” (“number = effective area × average crowd density”), the peak simultaneous attendance at the July 25 Ketian protest was estimated at 65,000–75,000 people, with a median of about 70,000. Total cumulative participation was estimated at 90,000–110,000, with a median of 100,000 and an upper estimate of 120,000.

Comparing this with ETToday’s poll showing about 60% public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling, it’s clear the food safety scandal has created a significant political wind favorable to the opposition and has successfully mobilized a large street presence.

However, compared to the 2014 gutter oil scandal, the current situation still shows a clear gap. Back then, public dissatisfaction with the government was more comprehensive, with many polls showing nearly 80% of the public had lost confidence, triggering a sweeping political backlash.

In contrast, this time around, about 60% of the public is dissatisfied with the government’s handling—indicating a substantial political force, but not yet the kind of “popular tsunami” capable of sweeping the entire political landscape as in 2014. If we compare the political climate to wind strength, this is more like a “strong wind” than a “typhoon.”

A favorable political wind does not automatically translate into public support. The wind only provides momentum; whether it converts into votes still depends on the candidate and team’s strength.

The differing electoral trajectories of the KMT mayoral candidates in New Taipei and Kaohsiung illustrate this point perfectly.

*The author is a veteran media professional.