Will Toxic Oil Scandal Hurt Election Chances? Lai Qingde's Approval Rating Holds Steady at 44% — Doctor Estimates 2028 Re-election Odds: No Officials Will Resign

With the 2026 local elections approaching, President Lai Qingde faces his first major political test. The Mei-Li Island Weekly released its latest 'July National Policy Poll' on the 4th, showing Lai's overall policy approval at 44.7%, slightly below the 47.4% disapproval rate. Compared to the previous month, the figures remain largely unchanged, indicating a divided public opinion.

Dr. Shen Zhengnan analyzed the results on Facebook on the 5th, posting under the title: 'Carcinogenic oil scandal does not affect President Lai’s approval; impact on year-end elections is limited;民众Party loses 6 percentage points to the DPP.' He noted that since Lai’s approval rating has not declined, it is unlikely that any cabinet officials will resign.

How is Lai Qingde’s approval faring? Trust levels also polarized.

According to the Mei-Li Island Weekly’s July national poll, 44.7% of respondents expressed satisfaction with Lai’s governance (14.5% very satisfied, 30.2% somewhat satisfied), up 0.8 percentage points from last month. 47.4% expressed dissatisfaction (18.8% somewhat dissatisfied, 28.6% very dissatisfied), down 0.1 percentage points. 7.9% gave no clear answer.

On trust, 45.4% said they trust Lai (17.7% fully trust, 27.7% somewhat trust), up 0.6 points; 42.6% do not trust him (15.9% somewhat distrust, 26.7% strongly distrust), down 0.9 points. 12.0% gave no clear answer.

President Lai Qingde’s approval and trust ratings show minimal gap between positive and negative views. (Photo credit: Liu Weihong)

Who is responsible for the toxic oil incident? Most blame the central government.

On national policy issues, the poll asked who should bear primary responsibility for the toxic oil incident: the offending oil company, the central government, or local governments. The majority (28.7%) pointed to the central government, followed by the offending company (23.0%), shared responsibility among company, central, and local governments (22.6%), local governments (16.5%), and shared central-local responsibility (3.2%). 6.0% gave no clear answer.

Is Lai Qingde unaffected by the oil scandal? Will it impact the year-end elections?

Dr. Shen noted that Lai’s latest approval rating remains nearly unchanged from last month and has held steady throughout the year. This suggests the month-long carcinogenic oil scandal has not significantly damaged Lai’s popularity. Therefore, its impact on the 2026 'Nine-in-One' elections is likely limited. The poll also shows most people believe the central government bears the greatest responsibility, with local authorities and manufacturers also accountable—blame is not solely on Lai’s administration. Although over half disapprove of the government’s handling of the incident, this has not translated into lower approval for Lai personally.

Additionally, Dr. Shen highlighted that民眾Party, which recently celebrated its 7th anniversary, faces the harsh reality of a 6-point drop in support. He attributes this to party founder Ko Wen-je’s legal troubles, which he believes betrayed public trust. In contrast, the DPP’s support rose by 6 points. Two interpretations are possible: either民众Party supporters shifted to the DPP, or the 6% represents non-committal voters, making the DPP’s gain appear larger. Despite shifts in the blue-green-white political landscape, Lai’s personal approval remains stable, indicating widespread dissatisfaction among centrist voters.

Dr. Shen concluded that Taiwan’s political blocs—green (DPP) versus blue-white (KMT and民眾Party)—are roughly balanced, with only slight margins determining outcomes. Thus, Lai’s chance of re-election in 2028 stands at 50%.

The poll was commissioned by Mei-Li Island Weekly, with questionnaire design and analysis led by Chang Yu-chung, Dean of the College of Social Sciences at National Taiwan University, and conducted by Trend Public Opinion Research via telephone interviews. The survey was carried out from July 28 to 30, 2026, covering all 22 counties and cities. Respondents were registered residents aged 20 or older. The dual-frame sampling method used both landline and mobile phones. A total of 1,200 valid interviews were completed (840 landline, 360 mobile). The maximum sampling error at a 95% confidence level is ±2.83%.

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