Lai's Reelection Under Threat? Huang Yang-ming Reveals a Quiet Alliance Forming in the Blue Camp: The Aftermath of the 'Ying-De Battle'

As the 2026 nine-in-one local elections approach and intensify, attention is increasingly turning toward the 2028 presidential election. Within the Kuomintang (KMT), in addition to Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiao-yen, KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-chun, and Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu, Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan-an has recently been calling for anti-toxic oil rallies on Ketagalan Boulevard and proposing votes of no confidence, actively commenting on national issues—leading outsiders to interpret this as ambition for 2028.

Media commentator Huang Yang-ming analyzed this on the program 'Lunch Break Briefing,' suggesting that Jiang Wan-an is more of a vanguard and shield for Lu Hsiao-yen, reducing the likelihood of Green Camp attacks on her. He also noted that whether President Lai Qing-de can smoothly run for re-election still faces a major variable.

Will Jiang Wan-an challenge 2028? Huang Yang-ming reveals the 'surround Wei to save Zhao' strategy: protecting Lu Hsiao-yen

Although the public believes Jiang Wan-an is highly likely preparing for the 2028 presidential race, Huang Yang-ming analyzed that Jiang's true purpose in leading the Blue Camp charge is to serve as 'Lu Hsiao-yen's shield.' By employing the 'surround Wei to save Zhao' tactic—shifting focus—he reduces the Green Camp's incentive to attack Lu.

Huang observed that the relationship between Jiang Wan-an and Lu Hsiao-yen is not competitive but shows clear signs of alliance. He noted that someone as extremely conservative as Lu would not follow Jiang's lead unless there was prior understanding, indicating a chemical synergy has formed between them.

Is Lai Qing-de's 2028 re-election bid uncertain? Huang Yang-ming: He created a precedent for being challenged

Huang speculated that within today's Blue Camp, Jiang Wan-an is not only Lu's vanguard and shield but also an absolute 'kingmaker.' Whoever Jiang endorses in 2028 could gain significant momentum. However, Huang also pointed out that if Lu's polling numbers remain low by 2027, Jiang himself might still run.

Will the Blue Camp definitely face off against Lai in 2028? Huang believes there are variables within the Green Camp. He recalled the 2019 intra-DPP 'Ying-De battle,' which essentially set a precedent—initiated by Lai himself—that even a sitting president can be challenged. Thus, if the DPP underperforms in the 2026 local elections, whether Lai can retain his position remains uncertain.