Chance of typhoon holiday on Friday? Experts reveal 3 scenarios for Typhoon White Dolphin's latest path: One trajectory may trigger land warning

According to the Central Weather Administration, the tropical depression located west of the Philippines intensified into this year’s 14th mild typhoon, “Kujira,” at 2 a.m. today (5th). Meanwhile, moderate Typhoon “White Dolphin” continues moving toward the Ryukyu Islands, and its outer circulation is expected to affect Taiwan starting as early as Friday. A sea typhoon warning may be issued, with Saturday and Sunday being the closest approach period.

However, the future path of “White Dolphin” remains highly uncertain. The weather-focused social media page “Guanxiangxiang Kaitianqi” (Observing Weather and Watching the Sky) analyzed that a key factor will be a westerly trough expected to move eastward into the Sea of Japan on the 7th, which will weaken the Pacific high-pressure system near Japan and cause the subtropical high to gradually retreat eastward. Yet, global numerical models differ on how long the high pressure will persist and when it will begin weakening, leading to significant divergence in typhoon turning timing.

Additionally, the development of other disturbance systems within the monsoon trough and changes in White Dolphin’s own intensity may further alter the subtropical high’s structure through the RMT effect (Ridge Modification by Tropical Cyclone), thereby influencing the timing and location of the typhoon’s northward turn. As such, the final path remains difficult to determine.

Synthesizing various model forecasts, three main scenarios currently emerge:

The first, represented by AI models EC-AIFS, Germany’s ICON, and the U.S. GFS, predicts an earlier northward turn, possibly shifting direction north of Shandong Province.

The second, including AI model GENC, the UK’s UKMET, and Canada’s CMC, estimates the typhoon will continue westward to near Shanghai before turning north.

The third, supported by Europe’s ECMWF and FNV3 models, suggests the typhoon may keep moving westward and only turn north after making landfall in central or southern Zhejiang Province.

The weather page notes that if the northward turn occurs between the 8th and 10th, a later turn means a longer westward track, bringing the typhoon closer to Taiwan and increasing wind and rain impacts. An earlier turn would mean relatively limited effects on Taiwan.

For now, continued monitoring of the subtropical high’s weakening speed and the typhoon’s actual northward turning angle is essential. If the path leans westward, closer to ECMWF and FNV3 projections, mountainous areas north of central Taiwan and northern regions will see heavier rainfall over the weekend, and northern coastal waters may fall within the sea warning zone. If the path shifts further south, a land typhoon warning cannot be ruled out.

Weather-wise, under the influence of White Dolphin and its broad low-pressure circulation, localized heavy rainfall may occur in the early morning before Friday due to convergence between northwesterly winds and land breezes in Changhua, Yunlin, and Chiayi. The northern coast will see scattered rainfall starting today.

This weekend coincides with Father’s Day and the period when White Dolphin will be closest to Taiwan. With weak steering flows and the typhoon in its turning phase, the path still has room for adjustment. Ongoing developments require close attention to the latest forecasts.