Behind the Scenes: What the KMT Fears Most Isn't the DPP — The Toxic Oil Scandal Won't Last Until Year-End, But 'This Issue' Worries the Blue Camp More

The 2026 county and city elections in Taiwan are set for November 28, leaving just under four months until polling day. The ongoing scandal involving carcinogenic cooking oil has ignited public anger, culminating in a July 25 anti-toxic oil rally on Ketagalan Boulevard organized by the Blue and White camps, drawing over 200,000 protesters. This surge has significantly boosted opposition morale.

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an seized the momentum to propose a vote of no confidence against the ruling DPP government. Although the Lai Qingde administration attempted to downplay the issue, a new controversy emerged: Taiwan Sugar Corporation allegedly knew as early as May that Chung Lian Oil was contaminated but failed to report it. This revelation has prolonged the crisis, making it difficult to contain the political fallout for the DPP.

The KMT is pleased to see the DPP struggling to manage the oil scandal, forcing DPP candidates across counties into defensive positions and creating opportunities to break deadlocks in key battlegrounds. However, KMT campaign strategists acknowledge that with over 100 days until election day, the scandal’s political impact will likely peak within a month. As one senior KMT figure noted, historical election patterns show that the final month’s political and economic environment, or last-minute events, are the decisive factors in determining outcomes.