Tsai Ing-wen Takes Personal Charge! Will the KMT's Strongholds Collapse in the 2026 County Mayor Elections? Predictions Suggest 5 Counties May Flip to the Green Camp

As the 2026 local elections draw near, Taiwan's political landscape is quietly undergoing a major transformation. Senior media commentator Huang Wei-han recently pointed out on the political talk show 'Super Politics' that five counties currently governed by the Kuomintang (KMT)—Hsinchu County, Taitung County, Changhua County, Chiayi City, and Yilan County—could face a dramatic electoral reversal due to the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) strong campaign deployment and successful internal integration. This prediction has sparked heated debate in the political arena and created tension in areas once considered solid KMT strongholds.

Huang Wei-han stated that among these five counties, Taitung County—traditionally a 'blue-majority' area—is the most representative and symbolic. With the DPP demonstrating remarkable cross-faction unity locally, a race once seen as lopsided now has a real chance of flipping.

Why Did Tsai Ing-wen Break Precedent to Become Campaign Chair?

Taitung County has long been considered a difficult battleground for the DPP due to its unique voter composition. Of the county's approximately 210,000 residents, nearly 80,000 are indigenous people. Historically, indigenous voters have largely supported the KMT, leaving the DPP's base stuck around 41,000 votes and unable to break through the KMT's winning threshold of over 70,000 votes.

However, this time, the DPP has nominated Chen Ying, who has indigenous heritage, directly targeting the crucial indigenous vote and breaking through long-standing structural barriers.

Huang Wei-han noted that Liu Chao-hao, who previously announced he would not run, has now fully endorsed Chen Ying and taken on the role of campaign general manager. Former President Tsai Ing-wen has also personally announced she will serve as head of Chen Ying's campaign headquarters. Heavyweights within the party, including Chuang Jui-hsiung and Chen Ming-wen, have crossed the strait to campaign in support, showcasing an unprecedented level of unity. Before boarding her flight after the event, Tsai Ing-wen was personally seen off at the airport by Chen Ying and Liu Chao-hao. Tsai emphasized that local development requires continuity, like passing a baton. This high-profile show of support has made Taitung one of the counties Huang Wei-han sees as having the highest potential for a flip.

Cross-Party Photo Sparks Local Speculation? The Political Significance Behind the Hot Air Balloon Ride

Beyond the DPP's strong internal unity, the political interactions during the event also drew significant attention. Huang Wei-han mentioned that Kuomintang incumbent Taitung County Magistrate Rao Qing-ling accompanied Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Ying on a ride in Taitung's famous hot air balloon, with the three taking a photo together mid-air. Afterwards, Rao even posted the photo on her social media, publicly thanking Tsai for visiting Taitung and tagging her, projecting a harmonious interaction.

In reality, Rao Qing-ling's younger sister, Rao Qing-yu, and Chen Ying have been close friends since childhood. Moreover, the hot air balloon festival is one of Rao Qing-ling's signature achievements as county magistrate, so hosting a former president for inspection and promotion is a reasonable official exchange. However, given that the KMT has already nominated incumbent council speaker Wu Hsiu-hua as its county magistrate candidate, the image of the current blue camp magistrate appearing so naturally with a green camp heavyweight has sparked speculation and ripples in local politics.

Additionally, Wu Hsiu-hua has become embroiled in public controversy. Huang Wei-han reported that a weekly magazine revealed that although Wu's family-owned buildings have only five addresses, they host over 15 registered companies with a total capital of up to 1.6 billion New Taiwan dollars. While Wu insists she is fully focused on politics and that the family businesses are managed by relatives unrelated to her, the vast commercial background continues to face public scrutiny.