Can Taichung Flip the Script? Latest Poll on Chiang Chi-chen Sparks Scholar's Warning: Victory Requires More Than Just Lu Shiow-yen

With the 2026 county and city mayoral elections approaching, Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen's eight-year term is coming to an end. In the race for Taichung's mayoral seat, the latest poll shows Legislative Yuan Vice President Chiang Chi-chen leading Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and legislator Ho Hsin-chun by a double-digit margin.

In response, Professor Niu Tse-hsun from the Department of Advertising at Chinese Culture University posted an analysis on Facebook early on the 8th titled 'Young Voters Also Back Chiang Chi-chen—Decisive Victory Is Imminent.' He stressed that enhancing the 'Lu-Chiang alliance' and the 'Jiang-Chi-Chuan network' has become the top priority for Chiang's campaign team.

According to the latest Taichung mayoral poll conducted by Apollo Research, Chiang holds 38.2% support compared to Ho's 24.1%, a 14.1-point lead. In terms of 'vote expectation,' Chiang leads 46.6% to Ho's 16.2%, a gap exceeding 30 percentage points. Chiang also leads among young voters aged 20 to 39.

Why is Chiang nearly achieving a 'landslide' over Ho? Professor Niu outlined four key reasons:

1. Clear Image and Positioning: Chiang's international expertise aligns with a clear vision of making Taichung a 'global new metropolis,' reinforcing civic pride.

2. Support from Party Heavyweights: Mayor Lu Shiow-yen serves as head of Chiang's campaign headquarters, while Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu actively supports Chiang. Their joint efforts in 'congressional diplomacy' have created a strong 'Han-Chiang diplomatic engine' impression.

3. The 'Jiang-Chi-Chuan Network': Chiang has formed a strategic alliance with Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an and New Taipei mayoral candidate Lee Shih-chuan. Together, they promote an AI-driven urban vision, effectively appealing to younger voters.

4. Spillover Effect from Food Safety Issues: The recent 'toxic oil' food safety scandal, led by Lu Shiow-yen and Chiang Wan-an in agenda-setting, has put the DPP on the defensive, indirectly benefiting Chiang's campaign.

Niu cautioned that while Chiang maintains a lead, he must aim to widen it beyond 20 percentage points. President Lai Ching-te has already visited Taichung multiple times and intensified criticism of Lu's administration, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

The poll was conducted by Apollo Marketing Research from August 3 to 5, 2026, via telephone interviews with 1,077 eligible voters aged 20 or older in Taichung. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.