KMT Faces Worst-Case Scenario in 2026? Huang Wei-Han Predicts Three Districts Flipped: Tsai's Strategy Creates 'Companion Effect'

With four months remaining until the 2026 county and city mayoral elections, President Lai Qing-De, also chair of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is aiming to expand the party's governance beyond its current five counties and cities—Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County, Pingtung, and Penghu. Media commentator Huang Wei-Han, on the program 'Super Politics Point,' highlighted that the KMT may face a reversal in key areas including 'Zhu-Dong-Zhang-Jia-Yi'—referring to Hsinchu County, Taitung County, Changhua County, Chiayi City, and Yilan County—as well as New Taipei City and Keelung City. He also noted that former President Tsai Ing-wen secured over one million votes in New Taipei City four times, demonstrating her significant electoral influence.

What are the DPP's goals for the 2026 local elections? At the party's mid-July national congress, Lai Qing-De formally endorsed 19 mayoral candidates, signaling full commitment to the upcoming local elections. Internally, the DPP is targeting a '5+5' strategy—retaining its five current strongholds while aiming to win five additional battlegrounds: New Taipei City, Changhua County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, and Keelung City.

Huang Wei-Han explained that 'Zhu-Dong-Zhang-Jia-Yi' refers to Hsinchu County, Taitung County, Changhua County, Chiayi City, and Yilan County. Based on current trends, he believes the DPP is slightly ahead in Changhua, Chiayi City, and Yilan, with Chiayi City potentially securing more than a narrow victory. Meanwhile, New Taipei City, Hsinchu County, and Taitung County are currently in tight, 50-50 races.

Regarding New Taipei City, Huang indicated that Tsai Ing-wen is expected to serve as campaign director for DPP candidate Su Chiao-Hui, though the official announcement may be delayed.

Reflecting on Tsai's track record, Huang recalled that she received over one million votes in New Taipei City during the 2010 mayoral race. She surpassed one million votes again in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, and nearly 1.4 million in 2020. With Tsai's proven ability to mobilize massive support, her role as campaign director would undoubtedly shift the electoral dynamics. Moreover, any change in New Taipei could trigger a 'companion effect' in neighboring Keelung, potentially reshaping the broader electoral landscape.

Additional exclusive reports from Storm Media include: Taipei City's race possibly flipping, with蒋万安 and沈伯洋's latest approval ratings showing a reversal of a 40-point lead; Taichung's potential shift, where scholar warns winning requires more than just Lu Hsiu-yen; and why Shen Bo-Yang chose 'orange' against Jiang Wan-an, with advertising experts pointing to a critical flaw in the campaign's core messaging.