Will Ke Zhien's Victory Shake Lai Qingde's Presidential Re-election Bid? Doctor Warns of Consequences if Kaohsiung Flips: Is the DPP Nervous?

With only 110 days remaining until the end-of-year Kaohsiung mayoral election, the latest poll released on the 10th by Jùwén Tiānxià News Network shows that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) mayoral candidate Lai Ruilong has 47.78% support, while Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ke Zhien stands at 46.14%, a mere 1.64 percentage point gap.

In response, physician Shen Zhengnan, speaking on his YouTube channel, stated that if Ke Zhien defeats Lai Ruilong and secures the 2026 Kaohsiung mayoralty, President Lai Qingde’s bid for re-election in 2028 would become extremely difficult—perhaps even impossible.

### Which Groups Support Ke Zhien Most?

Shen noted that according to the Jùwén Tiānxià poll, Lai leads among younger voters, while Ke enjoys stronger support among middle-aged and older demographics. The net difference is negligible and falls within the margin of error, indicating both candidates are essentially tied in overall support.

Shen also highlighted that the poll reported Lai Qingde’s governance approval rating in Kaohsiung at 48%. This matches the 48% figure from the Beautiful Island Electronic Newspaper’s July national opinion poll for the Gaoping region, reinforcing the accuracy of Jùwén Tiānxià’s sampling methodology.

On party support, the poll showed the DPP at 41% and the KMT at 25%, which aligns with general public perception.

### Ke Zhien’s Key Advantage

Shen emphasized a critical finding: among independent voters, Ke Zhien leads Lai Ruilong by a staggering 59% to 24%, a 35-point gap. This overwhelming lead among undecided or neutral voters represents Ke’s greatest strength and could be decisive in winning the election, depending on how party blocs mobilize.

“If party support isn’t vastly different, Ke will win. Even if the DPP leads the KMT by 15 points, combining KMT and Taiwan People’s Party support could level the playing field,” Shen explained.

### Is the Poll Accurate? Shen: ‘It Was Perfectly On Target in 2022’

To defend the credibility of the current poll, Shen referenced past performance. In the 2022 Kaohsiung mayoral race, Pearson Data, in collaboration with菱傳媒 (Ling Media), predicted on October 15—about six weeks before voting—that Chen Qimei would receive 53% support and Ke Zhien 36%, a 17-point gap.

The actual result saw Chen win by 17.9 points—almost exactly matching the prediction. “Given this track record, why doubt the accuracy of the 2026 forecast? Shouldn’t Lai Ruilong and the DPP be feeling nervous by now?” Shen questioned.

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