Kaohsiung Mayoral Race Tightens: Who Leads in Latest Polls? Lai Jui-long vs. Ke Chih-en Reveals Shocking Results

With the local election countdown underway, the latest poll released today (10th) by JUWEN TIANXIA NEWS reveals that with just 110 days remaining until the end-of-year Kaohsiung mayoral race, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Jui-long has secured 47.78% support, while Kuomintang (KMT) nominee Ke Chih-en trails closely behind with 46.14%. The gap between the two major parties stands at only 1.64 percentage points, injecting significant uncertainty into the mayoral race.

Beyond the two main camps, 4.24% of Kaohsiung voters remain undecided, while 1.84% explicitly state they support neither candidate or will not vote. These pivotal percentages will become the core battleground for both parties in the final stretch.

An in-depth analysis of voters' party affiliations shows that 41.43% identify as DPP supporters, significantly surpassing the KMT's 25.19%. The green camp leads the blue by 16.24 percentage points in party base. However, when comparing party loyalty to individual candidate support, DPP's Lai Jui-long barely maintains a 1.64-point lead.

Cross-tabulation further reveals that among the 23.14% of voters who identify as 'candidate over party' or politically neutral, Ke Chih-en enjoys 59.79% support—far exceeding Lai's 24.58%. Ke leads by a staggering 35.21 points among centrist voters. Additionally, among Taiwan People's Party (TPP) supporters, a dominant 95.02% back Ke Chih-en, a crucial factor in narrowing the gap with the green camp.

Incumbent Mayor Chen Chi-mai's performance also influences voter decisions. The survey indicates Chen's approval rating stands at 63.32%, with 45.49% 'very satisfied' and 17.83% 'satisfied'. Whether this high approval translates into votes for the DPP candidate is a key point of scrutiny.

Further analysis of Chen's supporters shows that 92.39% of those 'very satisfied' back Lai Jui-long. However, among the 'satisfied' group (17.83%), only 29.82% support Lai, while 58.23% shift support to Ke Chih-en. This indicates that general approval of governance does not equate to direct vote transfer. Lai's ability to consolidate pan-green and pro-administration voters will determine the final outcome.

Beyond local performance, central government performance is another critical factor. The poll also assessed President Lai Qing-de's approval in Kaohsiung. His approval stands at 48.62% (23.89% very satisfied, 24.73% satisfied), while disapproval reaches 51.38%, surpassing the 50% threshold. Among dissatisfied voters, 10.12% are 'dissatisfied' and 41.26% are 'very dissatisfied'. The national political climate may have ripple effects on southern Taiwan's election, warranting continued observation.

This Kaohsiung mayoral poll was commissioned by JUWEN TIANXIA and executed by Pearson Data. Funding came from JUWEN TIANXIA NEWS. The survey targeted Kaohsiung residents aged 20 and above with internet access, conducted over six days from July 27 to August 1, 2026, yielding 1,608 valid responses. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is within ±2.40%.