Is the US Military Running Out of Ammunition? THAAD and Patriot Missiles Down by Over Half After Six Months of US-Iran Conflict, Experts Warn Trump: Beijing Is Watching

The US-Iran conflict has now lasted nearly six months, and US military missile stockpiles are rapidly depleting. This not only restricts President Trump’s options for expanding military action against Iran but could also weaken Washington’s leverage at the negotiating table. According to US media outlet The Hill, experts have warned that Beijing may be assessing how long the United States could sustain a war over Taiwan based on this situation.

How long will the US-Iran conflict last? The Hill reports that after more than five months of military operations against Iran, the US military has “almost entirely” exhausted ground-to-ground weapons such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM).

THAAD missile stockpile down 80%, Patriot inventory halved—precision strike missiles nearly depleted

CNN analysis shows that since the outbreak of the Iran war, the US has consumed nearly 80% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile inventory and about 50% of its Patriot interceptor missiles. Before the conflict, the Pentagon held approximately 2,200 Patriot missiles and 450 THAAD missiles. According to a CSIS report, by the end of July, US THAAD missile stockpiles had dwindled to between 234 and 278 units.

Former US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta criticized this as evidence of Pentagon “poor planning,” especially as the US must not only consider renewed attacks on Iran but also defend against potential threats from Russia and Beijing. He warned that with multiple security threats looming, the sharp decline in critical weapon stockpiles marks a “dangerous moment.”

How much longer will the US-Iran battlefield last? Experts warn: time is not on Trump’s side

Jennifer Kavanagh, Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities, pointed out that Iran likely already understands the limits of US ammunition supplies and may be adopting a strategy of prolonging the war, attempting to “outlast the United States.” She stated bluntly that weapons shortages “absolutely” weaken US negotiating leverage with Iran.

More importantly, the implications of this issue extend beyond the Middle East. Ari Cicurel, Deputy Foreign Policy Director at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, said that as Iran sees the US unwilling to escalate militarily further, it gains more leverage in negotiations. “Beijing will draw the same lesson,” he said, using this to assess how long Washington could sustain a war over Taiwan.

Experts believe the US is now facing not just an ammunition shortage in the Iran theater, but a structural crisis accumulated over years of insufficient defense industrial production capacity. Without rapid expansion of production, US military deterrence against Iran will remain constrained, and Beijing and Moscow may reassess America’s ability to simultaneously manage multiple major conflicts.

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