Kaohsiung Heats Up! Lai Jui-long Leads in Polls but Appears Weak? Guo Cheng-liang Claims Ko Chih-en Holds Major Advantage: Two Heavyweights Haven't Even Started Yet

With just over three months until the 2026 county and city mayoral elections, a new poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral race—once seen as a one-sided contest—reveals a fierce battle. The latest survey shows that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) mayoral candidate and legislator Lai Jui-long leads with 47.78% support, slightly ahead of his Kuomintang (KMT) opponent and legislator Ko Chih-en, who stands at 46.14%. The margin between them is only 1.64 percentage points, well within the margin of error. Additionally, 4.24% of voters remain undecided, while 1.84% support neither candidate or will not vote.

Regarding incumbent Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, the poll indicates a 63.32% approval rating (45.49% very satisfied, 17.83% satisfied). Notably, cross-analysis reveals that only 29.82% of those satisfied with Chen’s performance support Lai Jui-long, while a striking 58.23% have shifted their support to Ko Chih-en.

Commenting on the tight race, former legislator Guo Cheng-liang stated on the August 10 episode of the program "News Straight Talk" that Lai’s mere 1.64-point lead could easily vanish, indicating that Chen Chi-mai’s popularity has not effectively transferred to his party’s successor. Guo emphasized that with both KMT heavyweights—Legislative Yuan President Han Kuo-yu and former Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng—yet to actively campaign, the political landscape remains fluid.

Guo analyzed that the current voter alignment between blue (KMT) and green (DPP) camps is clear, but the race is extremely tight. He warned that with several months until voting day, Lai’s narrow lead suggests weakness, especially given Chen’s high approval ratings. He cautioned that a national-level issue, such as a food safety scandal like the 'toxic oil' incident, could instantly shift public opinion and cost Lai the election.

Moreover, Guo believes Ko Chih-en still holds an advantage, particularly because Han Kuo-yu and Wang Jin-pyng have not yet fully mobilized their support networks. In contrast, Lai lacks significant additional momentum.

The survey was commissioned by "Juwun World" and conducted by Pearson Data, funded by the "Juwun World News Network." It targeted internet users aged 20 and above in Kaohsiung City, running from July 27 to August 1, 2026, over six days. The effective sample size was 1,608 respondents. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is within ±2.40%.

Additional exclusive reports from Feng Media include: - If Ko Chih-en wins, could it shake Lai Qing-de’s path to presidential re-election? A medical expert analyzes the consequences of a Kaohsiung reversal: Is the DPP nervous? - Juwun Poll: Only a 1-point gap! Lai Jui-long fails to benefit from Chen Chi-mai’s popularity; Ko Chih-en holds on with support from two key voter groups. - Unfazed by toxic oil scandals? Lai Qing-de’s latest approval rating holds steady at 44%; a medical expert estimates 2028 re-election odds: No officials will resign over this.