For Every 100 New Marriages, 42 Divorces! China's First-Half Marriage Registrations Hit Record Low, Divorce Numbers Surge to Post-Cooling-Period High

(Central News Agency, Taipei, 13th) The latest official data from China shows that marriage registrations in the first half of this year fell to 3.275 million couples, marking a new historical low for the same period. Meanwhile, divorce registrations increased to 1.383 million, with 761,000 divorces recorded in the second quarter alone—setting a new high since China implemented the 'divorce cooling-off period' policy in 2021.

On the 12th, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs released its second-quarter statistics. Compared to 2025's first-half figures, this year saw 264,000 fewer marriage registrations and 52,000 more divorces.

Looking at annual trends, national marriage registrations peaked at 13.469 million couples in 2013. From 2014 onward, numbers began declining annually, falling below 10 million in 2019, below 8 million in 2021, and dropping to 6.835 million in 2022—breaking below the 7 million threshold. In 2025, the figure stood at 6.763 million, nearly halved compared to the peak.

A post by the WeChat public account 'Data GO' argues that China's long-term decline in marriage rates is irreversible due to a shrinking pool of marriageable-age individuals. According to the seventh national census, the number of Chinese aged 20 to 34—prime marriage age—has declined from 320 million in 2013 to 240 million in 2024, a drop of 80 million over 11 years. This number is expected to accelerate downward over the next decade: births in 1996 already fell below 20 million, and in 2023, only 9.02 million were born.

Analyzing 18 years of data, the article highlights a clear 'scissor gap' emerging in Q2 2026: marriage numbers are declining both quarterly and annually, while divorce numbers are rising on both measures.

In Q2, marriage registrations totaled 1.578 million couples—a 7.0% decrease from the previous quarter and an 8.7% drop year-on-year. This marks the second consecutive quarterly decline, with the rate of decrease widening.

Meanwhile, divorce registrations reached 761,000, a sharp 22.3% increase from Q1 and 8.6% higher than the same period last year. This figure sets the highest single-quarter divorce count for Q2 since the cooling-off period was introduced in 2021.

Cumulatively in the first half of 2025, marriages declined by 7.5% year-on-year, while divorces rose by 3.9%. As a result, the divorce-to-marriage ratio (divorce rate relative to marriages) climbed from 37.6% in the same period of 2025 to 42.2%, approaching the all-time high of 42.9% recorded for the full year of 2024. This means that for every 100 new couples registering marriage in the first half of 2025, 42 couples filed for divorce.

China has become a 'nation of divorce'. In 2008, nationwide divorce registrations stood at just 1.55 million, with a divorce-to-marriage ratio of 14.8%—meaning one divorce for every seven marriages. By 2019, divorces had surged to a record high of 4.04 million, with the ratio reaching 43.7%—one divorce for every 2.3 marriages.

The article notes that when the 'divorce cooling-off period' was introduced in 2021, divorces plummeted to 2.14 million that year, a 47% year-on-year drop—almost halving overnight. However, examining the past five years, divorce numbers have been 2.14 million (2021), 2.10 million (2022), 2.59 million (2023), 2.62 million (2024), and 2.74 million (2025). 'The effect of the cooling-off period is rapidly fading,' the article concludes.

Since January 1, 2021, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs has required a 'divorce cooling-off period' in the divorce process. After the cooling-off period ends, if both parties do not jointly apply to the marriage registration office for a divorce certificate within 30 days, the application is considered withdrawn. The policy was intended to reduce impulsive divorces but has drawn criticism for merely making divorce harder without necessarily encouraging more thoughtful decisions.

The article suggests that if declining marriage rates reflect young people's reluctance to marry, then rising divorce rates may indicate that more people are no longer willing to endure unhappy marriages. (Edited by Zhang Shuling / Qiu Guoqiang)