Lai Jui-long or Ko Chih-en: Who's Leading? Writer Cites 2018 'Shocking Poll' of Han Kuo-yu: Lai Qingde's Mango Dried Snacks Hard to Sell

With just over three months to go before the 2026 county and city mayoral elections, the rivalry between the blue and green camps is becoming increasingly visible. Lai Ching-te, chairman of the DPP and Taiwan's president, attended a mobile Central Standing Committee meeting in Kaohsiung on the 12th to support Lai Jui-long, the DPP's mayoral candidate and legislator. Lai Ching-te claimed that the Chinese Communist Party has ordered election interference, and that false polls and misinformation have already emerged in Kaohsiung.

In response, writer Piaolang Island posted on Facebook on the 13th under the title '2018 Red-Peril Rhetoric Revisited: Foreign Forces Influencing Kaohsiung Elections,' warning that Kaohsiung will be the decisive battleground in the year-end election. If the DPP loses its southern stronghold, it could trigger a major reshuffle within the party's core and even impact the 2028 presidential election.

Are Lai Jui-long and Ko Chih-en neck-and-neck in the polls? What does Lai Ching-te say?

On the 12th, the DPP held its mobile Central Standing Committee meeting at the Kaohsiung Exhibition Center. Lai Ching-te led all Central Standing Committee members to rally behind Lai Jui-long. He stated that recent media reports indicate the CCP, during its 2026 Beidaihe meeting, ordered support for so-called 'patriotic Chinese forces' to win the election. Under this interference, Kaohsiung is under immense pressure, with false polls already circulating showing Lai Jui-long leading by less than 1 percentage point, along with false narratives like 'Lai Jui-long cannot hold the fort.' He warned that more disinformation may follow and urged Kaohsiung party officials to unite for victory.

In response, Ko Chih-en, the KMT's mayoral candidate and legislator, urged Lai Ching-te to 'stop fighting elections through insinuation.'

Piaolang Island pointed out that if the KMT wins Kaohsiung—the DPP's last line of defense—in the 2026 elections, it could trigger internal accountability and a major reshuffle within the DPP.

Is China interfering in Kaohsiung again? Han Kuo-yu's 2018 reversal

Piaolang Island recalled that Lai Ching-te's claim of secret Chinese interference in Taiwan's elections, leading to fake polls and news, is alarming. However, looking back at 2018, the DPP used the exact same 'foreign interference' narrative, with nearly identical attack patterns. At the time, Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Han Kuo-yu was initially considered a non-contender. But media and polling agencies began releasing surveys showing Han catching up, overtaking, and eventually leading the DPP's candidate, Chen Chi-mai, by a significant margin.

By the final stretch of the campaign, the green camp's unfavorable situation was clearly not baseless. In November, Tsai Ing-wen campaigned in Kaohsiung, playing the 'anti-China, red-baiting' card, accusing foreign forces of influencing the election. Yet, Han Kuo-yu ultimately won the mayoral race by 150,000 votes.

Is the DPP's dominance in Kaohsiung over?

Piaolang Island noted that Han's victory overturned 20 years of continuous green rule, shocking the political world. After losing, the green camp repeatedly blamed Chinese interference for the reversal. However, he emphasized a crucial point: in past Kaohsiung elections, the DPP typically won by over 500,000 votes. This time, the net gain and loss of votes totaled 650,000. The DPP should reflect on its loss of public trust.

If China truly interfered, how could Han later run for president and even contest for the Legislative Yuan presidency? If he faced criminal charges and imprisonment, his political career would have ended. Yet, none of that happened.

He contrasted this with 2018, when no evidence of Chinese interference was proven, and the DPP lost by 150,000 votes. Tsai Ing-wen resigned as party chair and publicly admitted the election result reflected public dissatisfaction with governance.

Piaolang Island concluded that in 2026, the same red-baiting tactics are resurfacing—questioning narrowing support and fake polls—almost replicating the 2018 'Chinese interference' accusations. Now, it remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself after the year-end vote. In closing, he used hashtags to state: 'China indeed has ambitions toward Taiwan, but constantly playing the anti-China, red-baiting card in elections misjudges public dissatisfaction with governance, making the 'dried mango snacks of national demise' impossible to sell anymore.'