Weather Forecast: New Typhoon Saudel Forming! Latest Path Reveals '7 Days of Continuous Heavy Rain Across Taiwan, Turning Red Alert,' Clearing Expected on This Day

Taiwan is facing a significant weather shift! Due to the passage of a broad low-pressure belt and the influence of tropical disturbances, atmospheric conditions across the region are highly unstable. The Central Weather Bureau has not only issued high-temperature advisories for 10 counties and cities, including Taipei and New Taipei, but also heavy rain warnings for certain areas. Meteorological experts warn that rainfall probability across Taiwan will significantly increase from today through next Tuesday (25th), with the most intense rains expected from Friday to Monday (21st to 24th). Additionally, tropical disturbances in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea may develop further, with the possibility of a new typhoon forming—residents should remain vigilant about sudden and severe weather changes.

Low-Pressure Belt Sweeps Taiwan for 7 Consecutive Rainy Days! Dual Tropical Disturbances in Motion—Typhoon 'Saudel' Formation Probability Revealed

According to the Central Weather Bureau, today's increased moisture in northern Taiwan and the eastern regions has led to localized rainfall. Strong convective development is likely in mountainous areas of the north and afternoon thunderstorms in central and southern Taiwan. The Bureau has also issued high-temperature advisories:

Orange Alert (risk of consecutive days above 36°C): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Nantou County, Yunlin County. Yellow Alert (caution for temperatures above 36°C): Taoyuan City, Changhua County, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Tainan City, Hualien County.

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University, analyzed in his 'Leak the Heavens Classroom' column that from tomorrow through the 24th, the low-pressure belt will slowly move northward across Taiwan, creating extremely unstable atmospheric conditions and significantly increasing rainfall. Daytime temperatures will remain high before rain, but strong convection may develop at any time, accompanied by lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy downpours.

Dual Tropical Disturbances in Action! Analysis of Systems Developing in the Philippines and the South China Sea

Regarding recent tropical system developments, meteorologist Lin Den-en stated on his Facebook page 'Teacher Lin's Weather Station' that, based on the latest European EC-AIFS numerical model simulations, two tropical disturbances—'95W' and '94W'—will appear this week in the South China Sea and east of the Philippines:

South China Sea Disturbance (95W): Has the potential to strengthen into a tropical depression, expected to move westward toward Hainan Island, with no direct impact on Taiwan. Northeastern Philippine Sea Disturbance (94W): Also likely to develop into a tropical depression, with a potential path moving toward Taiwan, significantly increasing moisture and atmospheric instability near Taiwan.

Lin Den-en noted that while the probability of these systems strengthening into typhoons is currently low, the 'dual vortex dance' could create a wetter environment, leading to more concentrated and significant rainfall in localized areas between the 21st and 24th.

Dual Vortex Dance! (Image: Teacher Lin's Weather Station)

Typhoon No. 18 'Saudel' Could Form as Early as Thursday? Experts Reveal Possible Path

Additionally, meteorologist Jia Xin-xing analyzed that the tropical disturbance located further east could develop into this year's 18th typhoon, 'Saudel' (Saudel), by Thursday or Friday (20th–21st).

Jia warned that the system may move toward Okinawa, urging travelers planning trips to Okinawa next Monday and Tuesday (24th–25th) to closely monitor flight and weather updates. Wu Derong added that the latest model shows the disturbance east of Guam developing and moving northwest, possibly turning north near the Ryukyu Islands between the 25th and 27th. Whether it will approach Taiwan further remains to be seen through ongoing model simulations.

One-Week Weather Outlook: Pacific High Pressure Strengthens from Tuesday Onward

Synthesizing expert opinions and meteorological forecasts, the upcoming week's weather can be divided into two phases:

August 18–24 (Low-Pressure Belt Influence Period) High rainfall probability across Taiwan, with vigorous afternoon convection. From the 21st to the 24th, enhanced low-pressure systems and moisture inflow will bring particularly heavy localized rains to areas south of Taichung and the eastern regions.

August 25–27 (High-Pressure Strengthening Period) The Pacific high pressure will gradually extend westward and strengthen, leading to clear and hot weather across Taiwan. Afternoon rains will be limited to mountainous areas, with reduced coverage. Residents should take precautions against sun exposure and stay hydrated to prevent heatstroke.