Weather Forecast / Typhoon Saudel Could Form Tonight! Path May Take a Sharp Turn, Direct Impact on Taiwan Not Ruled Out – Heavy Rain to Hit Entire Taiwan for 5 Days. Full Week Weather Outlook

Extreme weather is approaching! The Central Weather Bureau issued high-temperature advisories today (19th) for seven counties and cities south of Changhua, with temperatures expected to reach 36°C. Meteorological expert Wu Derong noted that starting tomorrow (20th), a low-pressure trough will slowly move northward, bringing abundant moisture via southwest winds to Taiwan. The public should remain vigilant against lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall due to unstable atmospheric conditions. At the same time, a tropical depression near Guam may intensify into a typhoon tonight or early tomorrow (20th), becoming this year’s 18th typhoon, Saudel (named by Micronesia), potentially moving toward the Ryukyu Islands, though its path remains highly uncertain.

Low-pressure trough moving north may bring torrential rains! Typhoon 'Saudel' could form tonight, with 7 counties and cities under heat alerts reaching 36°C

The Central Weather Bureau issued a high-temperature advisory today, warning that southern and central-southern regions will experience extremely hot weather before noon.

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, stated in today’s column 'Leak the Heavens Classroom' by the Foundation for Meteorological Applications that today’s atmospheric environment is highly unstable due to the influence of the low-pressure trough. Eastern Taiwan will see localized brief rainfall due to abundant moisture, while northern and central-southern regions are prone to strong convection in the afternoons. Prior to rainfall, the heat index across Taiwan remains high, so outdoor activities require sun protection and hydration.

7 counties and cities face 36°C heat! Be vigilant against strong convective rainfall this afternoon, August 19

• Orange alert (risk of consecutive 36°C highs): Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi City, Tainan City, Pingtung County. • Yellow alert (caution for temperatures above 36°C): Changhua County, Chiayi County.

Weather outlook for the week: From tomorrow to August 24, low-pressure trough sweeps across! Heavy rain and strong winds for 5 consecutive days

Wu Derong, citing the latest European model simulations, outlined a two-phase weather shift:

August 20–24 weather: Low-pressure trough moves north, triggering severe convective weather

From Thursday to Monday (20th–24th), the northward-moving low-pressure trough combined with southwest winds will create extremely unstable atmospheric conditions. Rainfall will become widespread across Taiwan, with intermittent strong convection bringing lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy downpours. Daytime highs will slightly decrease, but residents should monitor the latest weather bulletins closely.

August 25–28 weather: Sunny and hot nationwide, with afternoon mountain showers gradually decreasing

From next Tuesday to Friday (25th–28th), the Pacific high-pressure system will strengthen, leading to clear and hot weather across Taiwan. Afternoon localized showers in mountainous areas will gradually diminish. Sun protection and heatstroke prevention are essential for outdoor activities.

Latest update on Typhoon 'Saudel'! Tropical depression near Guam may become a typhoon tonight, with uncertain path – possible northward turn near Ryukyu Islands

Regarding typhoon development, both the Central Weather Bureau and latest model simulations indicate that the tropical depression southeast of Guam is steadily intensifying and may become this year’s new typhoon tonight or early tomorrow (20th), designated as the 18th typhoon of the year, Saudel (named by Micronesia).

Wu Derong analyzed that the system is expected to move generally northwest toward the Ryukyu Islands over the next five days. From days 6 to 10, it will continue to intensify but slow down in speed, possibly turning northward near the Ryukyu Islands. However, current European ensemble model simulations show widely scattered tracks, indicating significant uncertainty in its future path, requiring continuous close monitoring.

Weather forecast from August 19 to 21 (Image / provided by Central Weather Bureau)

Will Typhoon 'Saudel' directly affect Taiwan?

Wu Derong noted that the tropical depression may become a typhoon tonight or early tomorrow, and is expected to move toward the Ryukyu Islands over the next five days. Current ensemble model simulations show highly scattered paths with high uncertainty, so whether it will impact Taiwan remains to be closely observed.

The meteorological fan page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' stated yesterday that the latest track simulations show increased variability for tropical disturbance 92W after passing Okinawa, Japan. It could continue westward, potentially crossing Taiwan, making landfall via northern waters, or turning north toward Japan.

Latest track simulations show increased variability for tropical disturbance 92W after passing Okinawa, Japan. (Image / taken from Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency)