2026 Nine-in-One Elections: 100-Day Polls Reveal Fierce Battlegrounds and Latest Party Support Trends

The 2026 Nine-in-One Elections have entered the critical final 100 days, with campaign tensions rising and the latest public opinion polls from key battleground counties and cities being released.

According to the latest survey by ETtoday's Poll Cloud, the race for New Taipei City mayor between Li Sichuan and Su Chiao-hui is extremely close, with only a 2-percentage-point gap in support. However, a significant 5.7-point discrepancy exists between their support levels and perceived likelihood of winning. Notably, nearly one-quarter of Taiwan People's Party supporters remain undecided—winning over this floating vote may prove decisive.

The mayoral race in Taichung is also intensifying. A poll released by the New Taiwan Think Tank shows the gap between KMT candidate Chiang Chi-chen and DPP candidate Ho Hsin-chun has narrowed from double digits to single digits. Over half of Taichung residents expressed dissatisfaction with the city government’s handling of a recent fuel quality controversy, raising concerns over whether food safety issues will erode the incumbent's lead.

Changhua’s race has evolved into a three-way contest. ETtoday’s latest poll shows DPP candidate Chen Su-yueh leading with 36.4% support, while KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng trails by 17 percentage points. However, KMT internal unity remains fragile—Wei enjoys only 58.6% approval among KMT supporters, and less than 30% of former Magistrate Wang Hui-mei’s base has shifted to him. More critically, centrist voters in Changhua make up 33% of the electorate, with over half still undecided—this bloc could be the ultimate game-changer.

The race in Kaohsiung is equally tight. A recent poll by Juwen Tianxia News Network shows the gap between DPP’s Lai Jui-long and KMT’s Ko Chih-en has narrowed to just 1.64 percentage points. While incumbent Mayor Chen Chi-mai enjoys over 60% approval for his administration, it remains unclear whether this goodwill will directly translate into votes for Lai. Intriguingly, President Lai Qing-te’s disapproval rating in Kaohsiung has surpassed 50%, raising questions about whether national political sentiment is dragging down local prospects.

A poll by Zhen Media reveals shifting party support nationwide. Support for the KMT, DPP, and TPP has declined across the board, with one party’s rating falling below 7%—a new low since Zhen Media began its continuous polling in October 2024. The DPP remains the most supported party but has lost over 3 percentage points. Most strikingly, 35.7% of respondents identify as non-partisan—exceeding the support levels of two major parties—making centrist voters the pivotal force shaping the 2026 local election landscape.

In New Taipei, Li Sichuan and Su Chiao-hui are neck-and-neck, with only a 2-point gap. Yet their support and perceived electability differ by 5.7 points. Nearly 25% of TPP supporters remain uncommitted. The survey also identifies the most urgent urban issues for residents and which candidate is seen as more capable in solving city problems—results that were surprisingly revealing.

In Taichung, the gap between Chiang and Ho has narrowed to single digits—the closest it has been since the campaign began. Beyond support numbers, the poll includes metrics like electability, personal appeal, and incumbent satisfaction, painting a complex picture. With over 50% of residents dissatisfied with the city’s handling of the fuel scandal, food safety could become a decisive campaign issue.

In Changhua, Chen leads with 36.4%, but魏平政 trails by 17 points. KMT’s internal cohesion is weak, and centrist voters—33% of the electorate—remain largely uncommitted. Over half have not decided, making them the ultimate swing factor.

In Kaohsiung, Lai leads by just 1.64 points. While Chen Chi-mai’s approval exceeds 60%, this has not fully translated into support for Lai. Ko Chih-en’s strong appeal among centrists and TPP supporters has narrowed the gap. Meanwhile, President Lai’s disapproval in Kaohsiung has crossed 50%, suggesting national sentiment may be affecting local races.

Nationwide, support for the three major parties is declining. One party has dropped below 7%, a record low. The DPP remains on top but has lost ground. With 35.7% of respondents unaffiliated, the final alignment of centrist voters will be the key determinant in the 2026 elections.