Will Northern Taiwan’s ‘Next Two Days’ See Work/School Suspensions? Typhoon Soudelor Approaches, 7 Counties Face Over 60% Impact Probability, One Reaches 82%

Typhoon Soudelor (No. 18), a moderate typhoon, continues to approach Taiwan, expected to bring significant wind and rain to northern Taiwan between August 27 and August 28. On the morning of the 24th, the Central Weather Administration released the latest 120-hour storm impact probability forecast. Across Taiwan, seven counties and cities now exceed a 60% chance of storm impact, with offshore Lienchiang County reaching 82%—the highest in the nation. In major northern metropolitan areas, Keelung City stands at 64%, Taipei City at 63%, New Taipei and Taoyuan Cities both at 62%, while Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County each reach 60%. These figures indicate that all counties from Hsinchu northward along the northern coast are now within high-risk zones potentially affected by the storm’s wind field, urging residents to closely monitor updates.

When will marine and land warnings be issued? According to CWB forecaster Wang Pin-hsiang, Typhoon Soudelor is expected to pass near the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday before drawing closer to Taiwan. The administration plans to issue the marine typhoon warning “during Wednesday morning,” followed by the land warning “during Wednesday afternoon.” Forecasters currently assess the likelihood of a direct landfall on Taiwan’s main island as relatively low, with the projected path primarily passing “close to northern Taiwan’s offshore waters.” Thursday through Friday will be the critical period when wind and rain impacts are most pronounced.

Regarding the public’s top concern—work and school suspensions—the decision follows the Natural Disaster Work Suspension and Class Cancellation Guidelines. Regulations state that if a typhoon’s wind radius may pass within four hours over an administrative region, with predicted average winds of Beaufort 7 or higher, or gusts reaching Beaufort 10, it meets the reference criteria for suspension. Local rainfall reaching warning levels with associated disaster risks is also factored into the overall assessment. Ultimately, each county or city government will make the final determination based on actual forecast data.

Additionally, the CWB warns that southern and eastern regions are currently experiencing significant heavy rainfall due to the combined effects of Tropical Depression No. 24, a low-pressure trough, and strong southwest winds. Special alerts for “extremely torrential rain” have been issued for Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Taitung. This rainfall is not directly caused by Typhoon Soudelor, and the public is advised to remain vigilant against current flooding threats while also preparing for potential wind and rain impacts from the approaching typhoon.