Taiwan's Summer Could Last 7 Months in the Future! It’s Not Just Getting 'Hotter'—Three Living Costs May Also Rise

Climate change may be closer to everyday life than people imagine. The real challenge Taiwan will face in the future is not just a few days with temperatures exceeding 35°C or 36°C, but increasingly longer periods of heat throughout the year.

The National Science and Technology Council and the Ministry of Environment jointly released the 'National Climate Change Science Report 2024: Phenomena, Impacts, and Adaptation,' which indicates that under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario, Taiwan's summer could exceed 210 days—approximately 7 months—by the end of the century (2081–2100). Winters could shorten to fewer than 30 days. In contrast, if global emissions are controlled under the SSP1-2.6 low-emission scenario, summers would remain around 150 days and winters about 45 days by the end of the century.

In other words, 'a 7-month summer in Taiwan' does not mean it will definitely happen next year or in a few years, nor is it an inevitable future. It refers to a possible climate scenario by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions remain extremely high.

However, if hot seasons continue to lengthen, what truly deserves attention from households is not just 'getting hotter.' Costs related to air conditioning electricity, daily food, and health and care needs due to high temperatures could gradually turn into living expenses.

Could Taiwan’s Summer Really Last 7 Months? The Key Lies in Future Emissions

People commonly refer to June through August as summer, but in climate research, 'summer length' is not simply defined by calendar months. Instead, it is determined by long-term temperature thresholds to identify the start and end of seasons.

The 'National Climate Change Science Report 2024' uses the latest CMIP6 climate model data to assess Taiwan’s future climate changes under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

The results show significant differences by the end of the century depending on the emission pathway. Under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario, Taiwan’s summer could exceed 210 days and winter fall below 30 days by the end of the century. Under the SSP1-2.6 low-emission scenario, summer would be around 150 days and winter about 45 days.

Therefore, a more accurate understanding of 'Taiwan’s summer lasting 7 months' is: if global greenhouse gas emissions remain extremely high over the long term, Taiwan could face a climatological summer of over 210 days—about 7 months—by the end of the century.

What truly matters is how the increasing length of hot periods may change the daily costs we must bear.

First Cost: Longer Air Conditioning Use—What Increases Most Isn’t the Electricity Rate, But Consumption

The most direct impact on household bills is electricity cost.

Data released by Taiwan Power Company in 2026 shows that in 2025, residential users in Taiwan used an average of about 308 kWh per household per month during non-summer months. During the summer months (June to September), this increased to an average of 418 kWh—an increase of 110 kWh, or nearly 40%.

Increased electricity use directly reflects on bills. During summer months, the average monthly electricity bill per household increased by about NT$446, of which about NT$326 (73%) was due to 'increased consumption,' while the difference caused by higher summer electricity rates accounted for about NT$120 (27%).

In other words, the main reason many households see higher electricity bills in summer is not that the price per kWh suddenly increases significantly, but that the usage time of air conditioners, dehumidifiers, and other equipment clearly increases.

It is worth noting that Taiwan Power Company currently applies residential summer electricity rates only from June to September each year. Even if the climatological summer becomes longer in the future, it does not necessarily mean the summer rate period will be extended to 7 months—these two should not be equated.

But another issue is more practical. If high temperatures requiring air conditioning frequently occur in April and May, and hot conditions persist into October or later, even if electricity pricing remains unchanged, the annual cooling electricity consumption of ordinary households may still increase.

In the future, what may truly affect household budgets is not 'how many months the summer rate applies,' but 'how many days a year air conditioning is essential at home.'

Second Cost: Rising Agricultural Supply Risks—Vegetable and Rice Prices May Become More Volatile

The second cost is hidden on our daily dining tables.

The 'National Climate Change Science Report 2024' points out that climate change may affect agricultural production through high temperatures, droughts, floods, water resource changes, and extreme weather, further impacting farmers’ income, production costs, prices, and transportation—key food security issues.

Taking rice as an example, the report cites crop simulation research by the TCCIP team. Under the RCP8.5 high-emission scenario used in earlier-generation climate models, compared to the baseline period, Taiwan’s rice yield could decrease by about 13% by mid-century and about 18% by the end of the century. Corn yields could decrease by about 10% and 17%, respectively.

However, this should not be interpreted as 'if rice production drops by 18%, rice prices will definitely rise by 18%.'

Food prices are also influenced by inventory, imports, international raw material prices, exchange rates, transportation, and government price controls. Therefore, there is no one-to-one relationship between production volume and the prices consumers actually pay.

What is truly noteworthy is the stability of supply and prices.

The 'National Climate Change Science Report 2024' states that Taiwan’s food security is not only affected by domestic agricultural production but also closely related to imports, price costs, and trade transportation. As major agricultural regions at home and abroad face droughts, heatwaves, heavy rains, and other extreme weather more frequently, the risks of supply and price volatility may also increase.

Therefore, climate change does not mean all food will steadily become more expensive in the future, but it may make vegetables, fruits, grains, livestock, and seafood more prone to short-term supply shortages and price fluctuations due to extreme weather.

What households ultimately feel may not be a fixed annual 'climate cost,' but rather a sudden sharp increase in vegetable and fruit prices in the market after a heavy rain, drought, or heatwave.

Third Cost: High Temperatures Are More Than Uncomfortable—Medical Care, Leave, and Caregiving Could Become Hidden Expenses

The third cost, often overlooked, is health.

Data from the Ministry of Health and Welfare shows that in July 2025 alone, 683 people across Taiwan sought medical treatment for heat-related injuries. High temperatures can cause heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and even heatstroke. Elderly people, infants, certain chronic disease patients, and outdoor workers are high-risk groups requiring special attention.

For outdoor workers, high temperatures have already become an occupational safety issue.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration of the Ministry of Labor has issued the 'Guidelines for Preventing Heat Hazards for Outdoor Workers in High Temperatures,' requiring employers to take measures such as providing shade, cooling, adequate rest areas, and sufficient drinking water based on heat hazard risks. Work hours should also be adjusted when necessary.

There is currently insufficient official data to directly estimate 'how much climate change will increase medical expenses for each Taiwanese household annually,' so it cannot be assumed that 'hotter weather means medical costs will definitely rise.'

But the cost mechanism is not difficult to understand.

The longer the hot period, the more households may need to spend on cooling, shading, hydration, and other heat-reduction measures. If there are elderly, young children, or chronic disease patients at home, the need for heat protection and care may also increase. If heat exhaustion or heatstroke occurs, or existing conditions are worsened by high temperatures, it could lead to medical visits, time off work, caregiving, and reduced income.

These costs won’t arrive as a 'climate change bill' at home, but may be hidden one by one within each household’s regular daily expenses.

The Real Problem Isn’t Occasional 40°C—It’s When 'Heat' Becomes Half the Year’s Routine

When discussing climate change, people are often drawn to extreme records like 'highest temperature in history' or 'breaking 40°C.'

But for ordinary households, what may have a deeper impact is not a few extremely hot days per year, but heat gradually becoming a longer part of daily life.

Air conditioners may be turned on earlier and off later; agriculture faces more days of high temperatures, droughts, and heavy rains; the time elderly family members and other high-risk groups need heat protection also lengthens.

Ultimately, this is reflected in three living costs: electricity, food, and health and care.

However, 'Taiwan’s summer lasting 7 months' is not an unchangeable fate.

One of the most important messages of the 'National Climate Change Science Report 2024' is that different emission pathways lead to vastly different outcomes: under the high-emission scenario, Taiwan’s summer could exceed 210 days by the end of the century; under the low-emission scenario, it would remain around 150 days.

Climate change may seem like a massive global issue, but it could enter everyone’s life in the most ordinary ways—running the air conditioner a little longer, facing greater price fluctuations when buying groceries, or spending more time and resources caring for your own and your family’s health.