Will Typhoon Work Holidays Be Canceled? Latest Path of Typhoon Saudel Changes Again! Experts Reveal '2 Regions to Face Torrential Rain from Tomorrow'

The projected path of Typhoon Saudel has shifted significantly northward in recent days, greatly reducing the likelihood of its wind field directly impacting Taiwan's main island. Meteorological expert Jia Shin-hsing analyzed that this shift was driven by the westward extension of the high-pressure system over mainland China and the monsoon circulation, guiding the typhoon toward southeastern China's coast where it will gradually weaken. Although the threat of a typhoon warning has diminished, Taiwan remains within a broad low-pressure zone. Starting tomorrow (27th), enhanced southwest winds will bring increased rainfall to areas south of Taichung, with prolonged precipitation expected in southern regions.

Why Has Typhoon Saudel's Path Shifted Northward? How Has the Risk of Landfall Changed?

Typhoon Saudel's trajectory has undergone a clear transformation. Initially forecast to potentially strike Taiwan directly, its predicted path has significantly shifted northward. Jia Shin-hsing explained that earlier forecasts on Monday (August 24) showed international numerical models predicting the typhoon would pass Okinawa, turn southward, and enter the Taiwan Strait via northern waters—possibly even making landfall on Taiwan. However, over the past two days, the typhoon's path has consistently veered northward. The probability of the storm's wind field directly affecting Taiwan's landmass is now very low, significantly reducing the immediate threat to the island.

What Two Factors Helped the Typhoon Avoid Taiwan? The Role of Westward High-Pressure Extension and Monsoon Circulation

To explain why Saudel changed course so rapidly, Jia analyzed the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. He noted that earlier forecasts indicated a high-pressure system over mainland China was expected to strengthen eastward, acting like a wall that blocked the typhoon’s westward movement and forced it southward. However, starting Tuesday, this high-pressure system shifted westward, opening a corridor for Saudel to move westward toward Fujian and Zhejiang provinces in China. Once inland, the typhoon is expected to move southward along the edge of the high-pressure system.

Meanwhile, the Pacific high-pressure system near Japan and Korea did not extend southward as expected. This allowed a large low-pressure zone dominated by a counterclockwise monsoon circulation to persist over the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the waters east of the Philippines. This circulation provided the necessary steering flow for the typhoon to move westward. Thus, the westward extension of the high-pressure system and the monsoon circulation became the two key factors enabling the typhoon to bypass Taiwan.

Why Is Rain Continuing Despite the Typhoon Moving Away? Impacts of Enhanced Southwest Winds on Central and Southern Taiwan

As Typhoon Saudel moves further north and weakens in intensity, its wind field's coverage over northern Taiwan waters is shrinking. Wind and rain impacts are now relatively mild, with the main rainfall concentrated over northern sea areas and offshore islands like Kinmen and Matsu. Although the typhoon is not making direct landfall, Taiwan remains within an unstable broad low-pressure environment. Jia warned that starting tomorrow (August 27), enhanced southwest winds will increase rainfall in areas south of Taichung. While the peak rainfall intensity may not match last weekend’s levels, the prolonged duration of rain means residents in southern regions should still carry rain gear when going outdoors.

Additionally, tropical systems within the low-pressure zone remain active. Close monitoring of potential new typhoon formations and their future paths will be necessary from late August through early September.