Can Subsidies Compensate for Insufficient Social Housing? Li Tong-rong Exposes 4 Major Policy Illusions: A Political Ponzi Scheme

The Lai administration's social housing policy has recently faced criticism from civic groups over failing to deliver on its campaign promise of 130,000 units. In response, the government insists the 'Million Renting Households Support Program' remains unchanged and has announced plans to expand social housing through multiple channels: direct construction, urban renewal land returns, floor area ratio incentives, private donations, and land reservation in comprehensive development zones.

In response, real estate expert Li Tong-rong posted on Facebook, criticizing the 'diverse development' approach for creating four major policy illusions: policy confusion, unclear net supply, lack of KPIs, and substitution of subsidies for actual housing supply. He warned that combining social housing construction, rental management, and rent subsidies under the broad umbrella of the 'Million Renting Households Support Program' to claim achievements is akin to 'bait-and-switch' tactics and amounts to a 'political Ponzi numbers game.'

Li pointed out that the government's integration of 'direct construction, rental management, and rent subsidies' into a single program blurs the distinction between housing support and actual housing supply. This approach fails to increase the stock of public housing, overstates performance, and prioritizes subsidies over tangible supply—leading to four key problems.

First, 'triple-track confusion': cash subsidies are not equivalent to social housing, yet the government conflates performance metrics with actual new supply. Second, 'vague targets': while pledging 130,000 units, only 30,000 have short-term verifiable KPIs, and new versus existing projects are not separated. Third, 'lack of KPIs': the 'diverse development' methods (e.g., urban renewal returns, floor area ratio incentives) lack annual targets and clear accountability. Fourth, 'bait-and-switch': rental management merely redistributes existing housing, and subsidies do not increase real supply—they may even exacerbate rental price pressures.

Li proposed four reform measures: first, 'separate accounting'—construction, rental management, and rent subsidies should be tracked independently. Second, 'disclose net new supply'—clearly report newly approved, started, and completed units. Third, 'establish annual KPIs'—publish progress rates for each component of the 130,000-unit target. Fourth, 'return to supply fundamentals'—focus on creating a sustainable, long-term public housing stock.

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