The cross-border tourism market in Southeast Asia is undergoing a significant reshuffle. According to the latest statistics jointly released by COMPASS, the research division of Thailand’s Krungthai Bank, and the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Thailand welcomed 18,510,243 foreign tourists from January 1 to August 1, 2024, marking a 3.19% decline compared to the same period last year. Despite this, tourism revenue during the period exceeded 89.6 billion Thai baht.

In contrast, neighboring Vietnam delivered strong performance in the first seven months of the year, recording 13.9 million inbound tourists—a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. Malaysia and Indonesia also maintained positive growth trends, highlighting Thailand’s intensifying competitive pressure within the regional tourism landscape.

Geopolitical instability has emerged as a critical factor affecting Thailand’s tourism trajectory. Following a regional conflict that erupted on February 28, 2024, most international airlines were forced to reroute flights for safety, significantly increasing flight costs and ticket prices on routes between Europe and Thailand.

This impact became fully evident in April, which turned out to be the weakest month of the year. Tourist arrivals dropped 7% year-on-year to 2.37 million, with arrivals from China plummeting over 32%—the sharpest decline among all source markets. Nevertheless, tourism revenue in April rose 2.94% year-on-year to 11.7 billion baht, indicating higher per-capita spending by those who did visit.

In terms of key source markets, mainland China remains Thailand’s largest, contributing 3.078 million visitors from January to August 1. This is followed by Malaysia (2.37 million), India (1.37 million), Russia (1.10 million), and South Korea (679,000). Thailand’s Tourism Minister, Suchart Chomklin, noted that the slowdown in short-haul travel demand is another major factor behind the overall decline, as shifting travel preferences in neighboring regions directly affect inbound numbers.

Thailand has long been a favorite destination for Taiwanese tourists, prized for its vibrant night markets, affordable prices, resort islands, and rich cultural heritage—consistently ranking as the top choice for Taiwanese travelers to Southeast Asia. However, with neighboring countries like Vietnam actively promoting destinations such as Phu Quoc Island and Da Nang, coupled with fluctuating airfares and travel costs, Taiwanese travelers now have more diverse options for island getaways and independent travel, intensifying competition among Southeast Asian nations for Asian tourists.

Faced with declining arrivals, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has officially revised its annual visitor forecast downward to approximately 32 million. To reverse the trend, the agency is shifting focus toward emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and Kazakhstan, while also ramping up promotional efforts in short-haul markets.

Looking ahead, there are several positive indicators for the second half of the year. Airfares on certain routes have begun to retreat from their年初 highs, and as long as the international situation does not deteriorate further, European tourists are expected to return during the traditional high season. Additionally, Thailand will host major international events by year-end, including the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, the global music festival Tomorrowland Thailand, and various New Year celebrations. These high-profile events are expected to attract high-spending visitors and help restore Thailand’s tourism competitiveness.

FACT BOX

  • Source: PR Times
  • Category: Survey
  • Organizations: COMPASS / Krungthai Bank