Second Overtake! Latest New Taipei Election Poll Shows Su Chiao-hui Leading Li Sichuan at 35.2% – Chu Guo-ting: Competence Gap Widens to 3.2%

The New Taipei mayoral race continues to intensify, with the latest third-party poll showing Su Chiao-hui once again surpassing Li Sichuan. The Taipei-based Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association released its latest mayoral election poll today (1st), conducted under the supervision of academic Dai Li-an. The survey shows Su Chiao-hui with 35.2% support, compared to Li Sichuan’s 34.7%, giving Su a narrow lead of 0.5 percentage points.

New Taipei City Councilor Chu Guo-ting noted this marks the second recent instance in which Su has led Li in an independent poll. Last Friday’s Epoch News poll showed Su at 37.8% versus Li’s 32.2%, a 5.6-point lead. The Xinmin Association’s latest poll again places Su ahead, signaling a notable shift in New Taipei’s electoral landscape.

Chu Guo-ting emphasized that Su has now achieved a 'formal reversal' in both support and competence ratings.

According to Chu, the Xinmin Association poll was designed and analyzed by scholar Dai Li-an, formerly of the Formosa Post Poll, and executed via telephone survey by Bekin Market Research. Comparing this latest data with Dai’s April 2026 Formosa Post Poll reveals that Su has not only shifted from trailing to leading in support, but also widened her advantage in perceived competence.

Chu outlined three key findings:

First, 'support has officially reversed.' In the April 10 Formosa Post Poll, Su had 34.5% support versus Li’s 35.5%, trailing by one percentage point. By the August 28 Dai-led poll, Su rose to 35.2% while Li dropped to 34.7%, giving Su a 0.5-point lead.

Second, 'the competence gap has widened.' In April, 43.5% viewed Su as more suitable for mayor versus 41.5% for Li—a 2-point lead. The latest poll shows Su at 43.8% and Li at 40.6%, expanding her lead to 3.2 points.

Third, 'support for a party change in city governance is rising.' In April, 37.9% supported a party switch, while 32.0% opposed. The latest survey shows support rising to 38.6% and opposition to 33.1%. Chu interprets this as growing public discussion and anticipation for political turnover in New Taipei.

Chu stressed that from January to April, Su trailed in polls; from May to July, both candidates alternated in the lead; but since late August, Su has shown consecutive leads. 'The most important thing now is to demonstrate this momentum and further widen the gap,' he said.

He also highlighted September 5—the launch of Su’s campaign headquarters—as a critical upcoming milestone. Converting the recent upward polling trend into tangible voter support will be key in the next phase of the campaign.

The Xinmin Association poll was commissioned by the Taipei Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association, with Dai Li-an overseeing questionnaire design and analysis, and Bekin Market Research conducting the telephone interviews. The survey covered registered residents of New Taipei City aged 20 and above. Fieldwork was conducted from August 26 to 28, 2026, using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) with dual-frame sampling of landline and mobile phones. A total of 1,071 valid responses were collected (749 landline, 322 mobile), with a maximum sampling error of ±3.0% at a 95% confidence level.