Weather: New Typhoon Dujuan Forming! Latest Path Forecast Shows Northern Taiwan Cooling and Turning Wet, Rain to Continue Until This Time

The latest numerical model simulations show that today (the 11th), due to a slight increase in moisture from the northeasterly winds, scattered short-duration showers are expected in areas north of Taoyuan and in eastern Taiwan, while daytime temperatures in central and southern regions could reach up to 35°C. Over the weekend, temperatures across Taiwan will rise further, with northern areas reaching 34°C on Saturday and central and southern areas possibly hitting 36°C. On Sunday, northern highs could climb to around 35°C. Although a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea is developing and moving toward Vietnam, it poses no direct threat to Taiwan. However, from next Monday to Wednesday, another northeasterly airflow will move southward, increasing moisture and slightly lowering daytime temperatures in northern Taiwan, making it feel cooler. The public is advised to stay updated on weather changes.

How will moisture distribution and temperature differences look today? Which counties and cities require carrying rain gear?

According to the latest simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), today's slight increase in northeasterly moisture will bring scattered short-duration showers to windward areas north of Taoyuan and in eastern Taiwan. Leeward areas will remain mostly sunny and stable, with isolated afternoon showers still possible in mountainous regions. Temperature-wise, central and southern areas will feel hot during the day, while mornings and evenings across Taiwan will have a slightly cool autumn feel.

Looking at early morning low temperatures on plains, today's lowest temperatures on the main island have slightly rebounded by nearly 1°C compared to yesterday, generally ranging between 21°C and 23°C. Northern areas are represented by Shimen District in New Taipei City at 21.3°C, while Nantou's Zhongliao Township also recorded 21.3°C. Tainan's Dongshan District registered 22.5°C, and Yilan's Nan'ao Township recorded exactly 21.0°C. Reviewing yesterday's daytime highs, Pingtung's Zhutian Township recorded the highest at 36.1°C, followed by Caotun Township in Nantou at 35.5°C, Yuli Township in Hualien at 32.1°C, and Taoyuan District in Taoyuan City at 31.9°C.

Today's temperature forecast across Taiwan is as follows: northern areas 21–30°C, central areas 21–34°C, southern areas 23–35°C, and eastern areas 21–32°C. People commuting early or returning late should adjust light outerwear as needed.

Will the weekend tropical system in the South China Sea affect Taiwan? How high will temperatures rise in western regions?

Regarding the upcoming weekend weather pattern, numerical models from various countries consistently show a tropical disturbance gradually developing in the South China Sea, with the possibility of forming into Typhoon Dujuan. However, path simulations indicate the system will generally move toward Vietnam. Even if it strengthens later, its overall trajectory poses no direct threat to Taiwan, so the public need not worry excessively.

Due to the development of this tropical disturbance and atmospheric configuration, Taiwan's surrounding wind field will shift to easterly winds on Saturday and Sunday, gradually increasing moisture on the eastern side. As a result, occasional scattered short-duration showers are possible in eastern Greater Taipei and eastern Taiwan. Western regions will mostly remain sunny with occasional clouds, with isolated afternoon showers still possible in mountainous areas. Notably, under the influence of easterly wind subsidence and strong sunlight on the leeward side, daytime temperatures in western regions will gradually rise. On Saturday, northern highs are expected to climb to 34°C, with central and southern areas reaching 36°C. On Sunday, northern temperatures could rise another degree to around 35°C, so outdoor activities should include sun protection and timely hydration.

When will weather change again next week? How much cooling will the northeasterly winds bring?

The stable warm weather is expected to shift early next week. The latest model simulations indicate that from next Monday to Wednesday, a weaker surge of northeasterly winds will affect Taiwan, increasing moisture on the windward side. Northern and eastern Taiwan will become more prone to scattered short-duration showers, while central and southern areas will remain mostly sunny with occasional clouds.

During this period of weaker northeasterly winds, daytime highs in northern Taiwan will slightly decrease, feeling somewhat cooler, while central and southern areas will remain hot during the day. By next Thursday, as the northeasterly winds gradually weaken, western regions will return to stable, mostly sunny conditions, with only eastern areas still having occasional scattered showers. Daytime temperatures in northern Taiwan will also rebound accordingly. As the seasonal transition brings fluctuating weather, the public is advised to closely monitor the latest meteorological information when planning outdoor activities.