Is Kaohsiung Flipping? Latest Mayoral Poll Shows Dramatic Shift! Who Has Higher Support—Lai Jui-long or Ke Chih-en? Stunning Results Revealed

As southern Taiwan's election enters a critical phase, ETtoday Polling Cloud released its latest public opinion survey on the Kaohsiung mayoral race on the 11th. This survey focused on a head-to-head matchup between the two major candidates from the Blue and Green camps, revealing a tightly contested race with both sides locked in a tense tug-of-war. Is the Blue-Green showdown only 0.3% apart? Support levels nearly tied According to the latest poll data, under the hypothetical scenario of 'if the Kaohsiung mayoral election were held tomorrow,' if Kuomintang candidate Ke Chih-en faced off against Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Jui-long, Ke would secure 43.8% of voter support, while Lai would receive 43.5%. The gap between them is just 0.3 percentage points—well within the margin of sampling error. Meanwhile, 12.5% of respondents fall into the category of 'undecided, don't know, or no opinion'—a neutral and观望 group whose voting intentions could become the decisive factor in determining the final outcome. Tight support, but different momentum? Who has higher odds of winning? Compared to the narrow margin in support ratings, the survey further analyzed candidate 'electability.' Voter perceptions here show a different picture. The results indicate that 49.4% of the public believe DPP candidate Lai Jui-long will win, while KMT candidate Ke Chih-en's electability stands at 40.0%, a 9.4-percentage-point gap. Additionally, 10.6% of respondents remained uncertain, answering 'don't know or no opinion' regarding who will win. Will as high as 91.3% participate? How high is Kaohsiung voters' turnout intention? Beyond candidate support and electability, this survey also examined local voters' motivation to vote. Statistics show that Kaohsiung citizens are demonstrating highly active engagement in this election. A clear 78.8% of respondents stated they 'definitely will' go out to vote, while another 12.5% said they 'might.' Combined, this brings the overall potential voter turnout intention to 91.3%. In contrast, those answering 'not necessarily' account for 5.6%, and only 2.6% explicitly stated they 'will not' vote, with an additional 0.4% responding 'don't know or no opinion.' This public opinion survey was conducted by ETToday Polling Cloud Co., Ltd., which was responsible for questionnaire design, sample selection, survey execution, data processing, statistical analysis, and report writing. The survey was carried out from August 22 to 30, 2026, covering all 38 administrative districts of Kaohsiung City. The target population consisted of residents registered in Kaohsiung City and aged 20 years or older. Notifications were sent via 'email marketing (EDM)' and 'mobile SMS' to conduct a closed online questionnaire survey. Sampling was drawn from ETToday Polling Cloud's self-built membership database, targeting users labeled as residing in one of Kaohsiung's 38 districts and aged 20 or above. The sampling method used 'proportionate stratified sampling.' The total population size within the ETToday Polling Cloud database meeting these criteria was 406,434. A total of 1,283 valid samples were collected. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is ±2.74%, using 'raking ratio estimation' for weighting. Funding for this survey came from ETToday Polling Cloud Co., Ltd.