Will Taiwan's Stock Market Face a Mid-Autumn Reversal? Du Jin-Long Debunks the Myth: 'This Year Is Different' – 6 Stocks to Position Before the Holiday

Taiwan's stock market has recently experienced persistent volatility at high levels, with ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. Many investors are concerned that the four-day Mid-Autumn holiday could trigger a market reversal. In response, Du Jin-Long, known as the 'Old Sage of Taiwan Stocks,' stated clearly that after the market digested selling pressure and interest rate factors were already priced in, the probability of a reversal during the Mid-Autumn period is now very low. He pointed to several stocks, suggesting investors should pay attention to positioning opportunities.

Du explained that Taiwan's stock market underwent a major correction in June, when the index plunged over 8,000 points. The accumulated selling pressure from earlier periods has been effectively relieved, making a 'market reversal before this year's Mid-Autumn Festival highly unlikely.' He expects the overall market to consolidate in a range between 44,000 and 48,000 points, maintaining an upward oscillation pattern. After the holiday, there could even be a 'Mid-Autumn gift box rally.'

Du emphasized that this year's situation differs from past years. Monetary policy and interest rate adjustments have already been reflected in the market, reducing the likelihood of a sharp reversal. Looking ahead, corporate earnings growth and macroeconomic fundamentals are two key areas to watch. He forecasts the bullish trend could extend into next year, with an optimistic scenario seeing the index reach as high as 53,000 points. However, a consolidation phase may occur between October and November, offering investors strategic entry points.

Ahead of the holiday break, Du revealed his personal portfolio has been increased to over 70% exposure. He shared his watchlist, noting that the current market theme remains centered on AI. Investors should consider positioning in ABF substrate leaders IC Plus (3037), Nanya Technology (8046), and CPO silicon photonics概念股.

For core large-cap stocks, he highlighted TSMC (2330) and MediaTek (2454). In the financial sector, he named Fubon Financial (2881) and First Financial Holding (2892), particularly noting that with widening interest rate spreads, the sector's momentum could extend into May next year, serving as a key support for the post-holiday bull market.

Du predicted that by May next year, the Taiwan Weighted Index could reach a high of 50,000 to 53,000 points, possibly even challenging the 60,000-point mark. TSMC's target price could exceed 3,000 TWD. Looking further ahead, another strong market upswing may emerge by February 2028, with the index potentially reaching 80,000 points and TSMC challenging 5,000 TWD.